In its last reference document, the IEA forecasts global energy consumption and presents global warming limitation below 2°C as an utopia (1).
In another detailed report, the conservative institution, not really used to provocative statements, based its calculations on optimistic trends, especially on a strong coal reduction in China and India (2). The agency explains that “countries are generally on track to achieve, and even exceed in some instances, many of the targets set in their Paris Agreement pledges; this is sufficient to slow the projected rise in global energy-related CO2 emissions, but not nearly enough to limit warming to less than 2°C”.
The IEA built three energy consumption and greenhouse gases emissions projections to 2030. The first one (“INDC”) shows the impact of commitments made by countries in Paris Agreement: GHG emissions will still rise! This scenario is presently the most realistic. According to the agency, “a 2°C path way [scenario “450”] would require a much deeper and faster reallocation of capital, including much greater spending on improvements in energy efficiency”.
In other words, the gap between political pledges and concrete decisions is huge. To limit global warming below 2°C we need now political courage and individual responsibility.
Sources:
(1) International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2016:
(2) International Energy Agency, Energy, Climate Change & Environment – Insight 2016:
